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May, 2005 |
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Introduction
by Richard Farson Mary, you teased us a bit in the final stages of our interview with Mary Catherine Bateson about your interest in the differences in the kind of leadership that is needed depending upon the complexity of the context. Could you expand on that idea? Mary Boone I have been working with a colleague, Dave Snowden, who has been studying complexity theory for a number of years. Dave has developed a framework for understanding varying levels of complexity in different contexts. His work spurred me to think about how leaders would/should communicate in these different contexts. Together we have been thinking about how leadership styles might work in different contexts and exploring the question of whether or not leaders are capable of shifting their styles based on context. To answer Dick's question, an example I gave in Mary Catherine's interview is Rudy Giuliani. Prior to 9/11, Giuliani’s leadership style was questioned by many people. Certainly he had many fans who agreed with his style (including a hard line approach to crime), but he also had many detractors who felt that his top-down, deterministic leadership and communication style was not appropriate in a number of complex situations facing the city. On 9/11 the whole picture shifted. In a chaotic context, Giuliani’s approach was just what the doctor ordered and he became an instant leadership legend. Interestingly, if some of you remember, after 9/11 Giuliani wanted to change the election rules to allow him to stay in office and postpone the election. But New Yorkers said "No thanks, we can take it from here." The context had shifted back to complex. I’m going to try and upload a graphic that depicts Dave’s framework as well as my own and then we can discuss them. But while I figure that out, I’d like to ask you all a couple of questions… In my mind, one of the most important aspects of leadership style has to do with communication. Do you all agree? What have you observed about the leadership communication styles and the contexts in which our leaders (both public and private sector) are leading today? Participant An opening question: will your session on managing complexity be focused mainly for those of us who are email literate or will it include the average citizen? Or are these two groups already almost the same? For the immediate future, I believe that a new attempt to move away from sound-bite communication with "we, the people" must be replaced by more intelligent communication. But there are many (maybe an increasing number) who are closet believers in restricting citizen participation to voting for candidates only (and not even referenda). I know that the above will sound like a bias on the citizen participation. I have such a bias, but don't bring it here. What I am really asking you is to tutor us in different levels of complexity in addressing complexity theory.
Mary Boone Susan Dougherty has kindly uploaded the images I could not which you see above. (Thanks, Susan.) The left image is Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework. I'm going to invite him to join us this week and I'll let him do the heavy lifting on explaining complexity theory. But for now, let me take a shot at it. Dave's framework gives us an understanding of complexity in terms of order, cause and effect. I should stress the word framework--Dave intentionally doesn't use the word "model" as I recall--because this is not a prescriptive framework. It is simply used to help leaders make sense of the contexts they're in. The lines are not straight to indicate that contexts don't always fall neatly into a "quadrant" and the squishy middle of the framework represents the contexts that can't yet be categorized. On the bottom right are the contexts in which there is visible order. Cause and effect are obvious and the leader can sense, categorize and respond. In the top right you see Hidden Order. This is a context in which cause and effect are discoverable. In this context the leader senses, analyzes, and responds. On the top left, Complex Unorder, we find contexts in which cause and effect are understandable in retrospect, but not necessarily ahead of time. This is where a lot of us as leaders find ourselves spending a lot of time these days. In contexts of complex un-order things happen more organically. We can recognize patterns but cannot necessarily predict outcomes. This is where real ambiguity arises. (So Mary Catherine is well-equipped to lead in these contexts!) Here the leader probes, senses, and responds. The key word here is probe--a leader who probes doesn't have all the answers and knows they have to consult a variety of sources. In the lower left, we have Chaotic Unorder. This is true chaos where there is no perceivable cause and effect. Here the leader needs to take action and then figure out what's working and do more of it. We don't want leaders in a crisis to gather people around the water cooler. I'm surely not doing the framework justice...Dave will be here to give us more information (including what the little pyramids are because I can't remember). But for now let's go with my description. In my next comment, I'll explain my model on the right and the relationship to Dave's. Mary Boone In my model on the right, I'm creating a framework for leadership communication. It can be applied at both the individual and organizational level. At the left of the circle, you see an arrow pointing downward. This represents broadcast communication (e.g. memos, speeches, directives). The arrow on the far right pointing upward represents feedback--i.e. communication from people upwards to the leader. The arrows on top pointing outwards represents lateral communication. Leaders do this with their peers and they create environments which encourage people at other levels to communicate with each other. Lots of leaders forget to do this often enough. The arrows pointing directly at each other at the bottom represent interpersonal communication. This can be one on one or in small groups. The arrows on the circle in the middle represent intrapersonal (or reflective) communication. Leaders need to communicate with themselves (or reflect) before they communicate with others. What I'm hoping to do with this model is to help leaders think through all of the forms of communication they might need instead of just sticking with the ones they're comfortable with. And different contexts require different communication approaches. I'm in the process of working with Dave to see how these models overlap. Intuitively, I know that certain types of communication are more appropriate for certain contexts. For example, if you are in the bottom right context where things are known, you can do a lot more broadcast communication. But if you're in the top left (Complex Un-order) lateral communication and feedback become much more necessary. I'd love to hear people's thoughts on how they think the models overlap or how they apply to current leadership situations. Dave Snowden It’s a pleasure to be invited here and to have a chance to work with Mary, who has done a great job of explaining the Cynefin framework. I am going to make two posts to complement what she has said. One is a simple illustration of the difference between order and unorder and the second is a statement about what it is that leaders manage in the different spaces. One other quick point of clarification, the reason for the "fold" at the bottom of the framework is that the boundary between visible order and chaotic un-order is always a catastrophic one. We are at most risk of catastrophic failure when our world appears at its most certain - another word for this is complacency. Participant Imagine organising a birthday party for a group of young children. Would you agree a set of learning objectives with their parents in advance of the party? Would those objectives be aligned with the mission statement for education in the society to which you belong? Would you create a project plan for the party with clear milestones associated with empirical measures of achievement? Would you start the party with a motivational video so that the children did not waste time in play not aligned with the learning objectives? Would you use PowerPoint to demonstrate to the children that their pocket money is linked to achievement of the empirical measures at each milestone? Would you conduct an after action review at the end of the party, update you best practice database and revise standard operation procedures for party management? No, instead like most parents you would create boundaries to prevent certain types of behaviour, you would use attractors (party games, a football, a videotape) to encourage the formation of beneficial largely self-organising identities; you would disrupt negative patterns early, to prevent the party becoming chaotic, or requiring the draconian imposition of authority. At the end of the party you would know whether it had been a success, but you could define (in other than the most general terms) what that success would look like in advance. Participant In unorder we have to find "ordered" aspects of an unordered system to manage. That means we do not focus on the end point (other than as an inspirational attractor) but on the conditions around which patterns of order emerge. That means focusing on five things (In the Cynefin pantheon this is the ABIDE framework): Attractors - what are the focal points around which markets, staff etc are coalescing, what are their nature (single point, multi-point or strange--that is to say naturally evolving)? Can they be changed, should they be changed, how would we monitor the impact of change? Boundaries - what boundaries limit behaviour or provide velocity? What is their nature (brittle, elastic, permeable)? Can they be changed, should they be changed, how would be monitor the impact of change? Identities--not necessarily individuals or aggregations of individuals, but the identities in play in the space (this is a very big subject). What is their nature (role/individual, permanent, contextual) Can they be changed, should they be changed? How would be monitor the impact of change? Dissent/Diversity - what is the level, should it be increased (exploration) or decreased (exploitation)? Environment - a range of issues such as proximity of agents, reward criteria, attribution of success (Axelrod and Cohen's book on complexity has a good summary of these) Participant Participant Mary Boone And your question about approaches being instinctual is of course right on target. Not every response is "designed"--but the problem is that some people have one leadership or communication style that they are comfortable with and stick with it even when the situation calls for something else. (e.g. my Giuliani example). What Dave and I are exploring is the possibility that we can teach people to consider different contexts, offer them some alternatives in terms of communication and leadership approaches and then when they're faced with a context that doesn't match their "normal" style; they can make a more informed decision about an appropriate response. Dave Snowden One of the main purposes of the Cynefin framework to alter people to the need to gain new perspective, to disrupt patterns. So if I am in a domain I know what my starting point should be (in complex I probe, in visible order I apply best practice etc) and if I am approaching a boundary then I need the reflective time and more diversity. In other words, it’s about information processing efficiency as much as anything else. Participant So when I look at the diagrams you and your colleague have presented here, I find the graphics much less blurry than the reality. Even the line drawn between "visible order" and "hidden order" is not nearly blurry enough to correspond to my experience. I appreciate that you've noted that the line between "visible" and "hidden" is "not straight" and indeed might be "squishy." But in my experience the squishiness is of the essence; no real world problem fits entirely in either category. I have tried hard to think of a situation in which I've found myself where cause-and-effect is "obvious" in the same way to all the relevant participants--and I come up empty. Even in retrospect, which you suggest clarifies cause-and-effect in "Un-order," the clarifications are quite likely to vary according to the varying points of view. And in the case of "chaotic un-order," it surely isn't true that there is "no perceivable cause-and-effect." Indeed, every participant in a "chaotic un-order" is likely to perceive causes and effects from his/her standpoint, which is precisely what makes the situation seem rather chaotic to those involved, and even more so to outside observers. In these comments I may be arguing more with Dave Snowden than with you--though you can't wholly escape, since you uploaded that diagram into this conference. So let me argue gently with your diagram, too. Its underlying philosophy seems hierarchical--the leader is on top, the "people" somewhere below. Note the phrasing in your 14:6: "...feedback--i.e. communication from people upwards to the leader." That is surely too vertical an image to convey the idea that on some issues some people lead and others follow, but on other issues different people lead and the former leaders follow--which strikes me as the way things often work, and certainly ought to work in a true democracy. I guess what I'm saying is, Beware of diagrams that make too clear what is necessarily fuzzy. In the last paragraph of your 14:6, you accept the "bottom right context where things are known" as the basis for assuming "you can do a lot more broadcast communication." But "things" are never "known" in just the same way by each person in any community. So even "broadcast communication" has to take account of those differences--which means it would be wise, by unremitting consultation, to diagnose the differences in the community before broadcasting a "one size fits all" top-down doctrine that may not "work" because the prospective leaders in that community (who were assumed by der Fuhrer to be always followers) disagree with it. I will have some comments on Comments 7 ff., but this is probably enough for one night..... Thanks, Mary, for stimulating our juices..... Participant BUT: I strongly believe that quoting from experience today fails to recognize the tremendous (in my perception at least) changes that strangely enough match in time the changes from the 20th to the 21st century. As a society (if not a species) we desperately need to be as inventive in decision making as we are in the sciences that make these decisions so critical. Both Harlan and Mary seem to rely on getting participants to accept new procedures that may be urged upon them (correct me if I am mistaken). But of course if it were a matter that has gone to court--a set of hugely complex procedures that once were "new" and in the inventing stages--the views of the individual participant have little impact on the mandatory processes of the courts. I am not suggesting that we can expect this kind of acceptance on new procedures today, but I AM suggesting that in discussions like we are having here we should not be overly hampered by concern over their "acceptance". What is needed is encouragement to experiment with volunteers in perfecting those processes which early experimentation has already proven some hope regarding their improvement over current decision-making and educational efforts. Again I am far from an expert on this, but the one "experiment" in my experience is that of Carolyn Lukensmeyer of Amreicaspeaks - (www.americaspeaks.org ). I have mentioned this before, but there are many others on the drawing boards with various track records. Once again I suggest that this is an area of exploration which I would like to hear the more experienced and up-to-date members of this group discuss. Mary Boone First of all, Harlan, thanks for being "cantankerous"--this is exactly what I need to sharpen the ideas. You're right, I shouldn't use "leader" in a hierarchical sense. In fact it should almost be "communicator"--we all broadcast to and get feedback from others--regardless of where we sit in terms of formal power. So more on that after I ruminate about it a bit. Secondly, you've really added a lot to my thinking on the broadcast--I talk about the need to tailor messages to audiences in the book, but I need to emphasize that when I present the model. Perhaps the visual should be a dot with a bunch of arrows emanating out from it to indicate that different "broadcasts" are going to different audiences--narrowcasting I think they call it. Don--I need to think more about your answer but the experiments are definitely part of this model. In the model above where I talk about lateral communication, this is where I recommend the use of large group interventions including the type that Carolyn gets involved in. More to come. Thanks to you both for joining us and taking the time to put in such interesting comments. Participant My view is that the more important a relationship (and leadership is one of the most important) the less skills matter. Indeed, even the idea of a posture, if it conveys that the leader remains in charge, invulnerable, in complete possession of himself or herself, can in a paradoxical way be self defeating. My own informal research would indicate that the moments that employees appreciate most, that they will identify as the most important in the history of their relationships to their bosses, is when the boss is revealed as a genuine person, vulnerable, not in total control, acting spontaneously, any façade-cracking. But would that be appreciated in a crisis? I'm not sure. But I would think it would be more likely to happen then. Whatcha think? Mary Boone I think our ability to handle a leader's vulnerability in a crisis would depend on the circumstances. But what we do look for in a leader in a crisis is action. The key notion is that the leader needs to recognize when it's a real crisis. Take Alexander Haig's "I'm in control here" as an example. When the President was shot, there was already a "known" context--the VP becomes president. So there wasn't really a "crisis"--certainly it was a serious situation, but not a crisis. It's interesting, I think, that corporate leaders may be allowed more latitude in terms of the vulnerability issue. Perhaps employees do value seeing the "human" side of leaders. But as a country we don't seem to value it very much in our political leaders. We didn't enjoy seeing Bush Sr. fall victim to the flu at the Chinese dinner table; we were less than impressed with Clinton's sexual escapades; we didn't want to hear Cheney curse to another Senator we didn't want to see Dean screaming during a campaign speech, etc. All of these actions showed them not in total control, acting spontaneously and with their facades cracking, so to speak. So, I know what you're getting at, but interestingly I think this brings us back to the topic of compassion. We want to know that a leader understands what it is to be human but we're not sure that we want to see all the grisly details of how they gained that wisdom. There's a big difference between saying "I don't know" and "losing possession of yourself". Participant Participant My reaction at the time was that it was a more fundamentally foolish statement than that. It "produced [I then wrote] neither reassurance nor anger from the American people but nervous laughter, as in watching theater of the absurd. We the people know by instinct that in our pluralistic democracy no one is, can be, or is even supposed to be 'in control.' By constitutional design reinforced by the information-rich conditions of work, we live in a nobody-in-charge society." In his 1984 memoir "CAVEAT: Realism, Reagan and Foreign Policy, "Haig discredited the television news with editing and editorializing to make the comment look worse than his intent. Ted Koppel of ABC, he says, spread the word that Haig had gotten the presidential succession wrong. But Haig wasn't making a declaration about presidential succession. He knew perfectly well that as Secretary of State he was fifth, not third, in line; that’s the sort of information a presidential appointee is not likely to forget. Within the executive branch, for the management of a crisis (which he and most of his listeners thought it was) and with the Vice President away from Washington, Haig was the senior officer present. So he was right about that. But that didn't mean he was "in control." CBS's editing also contributed to Haig's trouble--on purpose, he later told me. Haig had said he was "in control . . . pending the return of the vice president." On Dan Rather's evening newscast, Haig says, the softening latter part of the sentence was snipped off. Maybe, Mary, you were listening to CBS: the "context" you thought he was out of (the presidential succession) was quite different from the context he thought he was in (who's the senior officer present in Washington just now) when he made his announcement. In sum: I wouldn't fault Alexander Haig for stepping up to the microphone at the White House at that moment in time. My quarrel was, and is, with the word he then used ("control") to describe his role in the situation--crisis or not. Participant Participant The only reason I am taking up space here is that my principal concern also seems to have been missed or misunderstood. Or it may also seem to most of you not related to our topic here. But I feel strongly enough about it to make one more try: I strongly believe that in the "modern world" of increased complexity AND large scale impacts of poor decisions that we need to invent new decision procedures to match the new advances made by explosive science. My perception (and again I would appreciate contradiction with explanation) is that our traditional decision making procedures are primarily based in adversarial /winning skills rather than understanding/persuasion skills and procedures. As our population grows and the average citizen becomes increasingly remote from the centers of decision making, it seems to me that IF democracy is to survive it demands new decision making procedures and attitudes. Where we both seem to agree, the experiments of Lukensmeyer and Americaspeaks seem to be an important area of experimentation. Do these concerns belong in this conference? Mary Boone First of all, let me say that I am in violent AGREEMENT with both you and Don. We've got a no one in control society. And we also need more inclusive procedures for decision-making and communication. Both Dave's and my framework aim to support these ideas rather than refute or undermine them in any way, so we just need to be clear about how we agree with you. First of all, Don, I think democracy needs to survive not only in the country, but also in organizations. The types of procedures I recommend in the book are highly interactive. But I also recognize that in some circumstances (e.g. 9/11 in New York City) we wouldn't want to have a meeting that very day led by Carolyn. Her perspective would be invaluable once things were not so chaotic as they were that very day or a meeting of that type could be fantastic for helping to prepare for a crisis. And Harlan, I've thought more about your earlier comments and what I'm trying to get across is not the notion of a hierarchical leader, but the notion that anyone who is trying to communicate about anything needs to consider different communication approaches such as the one I use the circle for. I'm going to change the up and down arrows to reflect a lack of hierarchy visually. Is there anything else about the model that any of you see that needs revision? Thanks! Mary Boone So it's ok for Clinton to play the sax, or Reagan to ride a horse (even though the press mavens got him to ride Western when he usually rode hunt seat), or for Edwards to admit the pain he and Elizabeth experienced when losing a child. Participant Vulnerability is when you can't defend or control, when you are revealed involuntarily, usually by the actions of someone else toward you. It is what we all try desperately to avoid, but discover when we get through it that it usually creates bonds with another that are stronger than before. It is how a group breaks through to a defensive member and gets past an impasse, embracing the member. It's how and why couples fight--to create vulnerability in the other, the feeling that you can indeed have an impact on your partner. It is not possible to make oneself vulnerable, any more than one can make oneself happy or sincere or have a good time. Vulnerability is a transaction. It generally requires another. So much of what is important in a leader's communication is not within his or her control. People learn what we are, not what we say. Participant Participant Participant Apropos hierarchy: If there's an overriding principle, I suppose it is always to avoid treating other people as "below" me, even if that's the way they seem to feel. And the clue to my acting this way is not to regard any relationship as determined by a hierarchy, even if my attitudes and actions seem to mess up the organization chart that some expert on organization has hung up on the wall. Participant I guess what I'm suggesting, Mary, is that not only does a leader analyze situations, but often designs them. Proactive rather than reactive. I thought I was paying close attention during the aftermath of 9/11, but I must have blinked, because I never saw the magnificent, Man of the Year quality, leadership from Rudy. I'm sorry I missed it because I never know what anyone is talking about when they use it as an example of great leadership. Participant Mary Boone I second Harlan's applause of Richard's definition of vulnerability and I think it is essential. Leaders will not create environments for interactive communication if they are unwilling to be vulnerable. This is why it is often challenging to get leaders to encourage lateral communication in their organizations--they often don't want to be vulnerable and they often don't want to share power. They want to have the "answers" instead of asking questions and allowing the group to help make many determinations. So thanks, Richard, for that contribution. And Richard, in 29, you state, much more eloquently, the exact point I am trying to make. I'm talking about designing and hoping that I can create a framework to help leaders be better "communication designers." Mary Boone The whole point of the model is that anyone in an organization could use it at any time. Anyone who is trying to communicate or encourage communication can use it to remind themselves of the general types of communication they can employ. I'm going to keep all of your observations in mind as I try to recreate the framework. You are right, communication is a complicated thing and it can't be reduced artificially. But I think it is also true that some people are naturally good at it and that others can learn to be better at it. The framework can never be exhaustive but it can be informative (at least if I get it to be clearer!). Does that make sense? Mary Boone As for Bush, my perception is that he frequently acts as though he is in a chaotic or known context when in fact he is often in a complex one. He's more comfortable with certainty than uncertainty and I think a lot of voters feel the same way. (Of course there are also a lot who don't!) The interesting thing is that I perceive this as the main schism in the country right now which is why Mary Catherine's comments were so important. When you are in the bottom right or bottom left context, it is easier to simply tell people what direction we're going. I think Bush is more comfortable with this than with a more interactive style which might cause him to experiment with the type of meetings that Don Straus has been describing that Carolyn and I both run. I ran a 3000-person meeting that was designed to allow the entire leadership of a gigantic organization to share ideas with each other and with top management on a critical strategy issue. This type of interactive communication happens only when a leader realizes that a situation is complex and that they don't have all the answers. I don't think that Bush believes he personally has all the answers, but I get the impression that he thinks his team does and to ask voters to give input in anything more than a simple poll I think is unlikely to happen under his watch. Mary Boone First of all, I think you're a step ahead of the game to recognize that the situation is not chaotic but rather "stressful" and it seems to me complex. My input on the communication side would be that this would be a time for building coalitions, for holding meetings like the one I just described above where there is a lot of lateral communication and search for agreement on common ground. All of this would take place before the leader presents the results of these dialogues. In fact, I think the way that PPFA went about developing the vision is a perfect example of a good way to address a complex circumstance. Perhaps some really good large group dialogues among a coalition of likeminded people could produce an inter-organizational position that would be powerful. Am I getting at the right stuff? Mary Boone Mary Boone And the Fireside Chats were a wonderful communication mechanism. I'd like to read more about them and the impact they had. Suggestions? Dave Snowden The model is not an absolute one but is socially constructed in use. That recognises the phenomenological aspects of human sense making (your point about some people imputing cause in chaos would mean that they would define the complex boundary in a different way). Similarly, the boundaries can be drawn (or rather constructed) in different ways: some groups will make them fussy, some sharp, and it is interesting to see how different groups do this. We did a recent project using the framework in Singapore around SARS to show the different cognitive biases of ministries (i.e. the way they constructed the framework differed radically. This is now used to help explain different interpretations between ministries Dave Snowden - Humans make decisions not on rational grounds, but on the basis of a first fit pattern match with previous experience (which is then justified in terms of the dominant ideology). - A few thousand years ago it would have been "a tree spirit spoke to me"; these days it’s "I considered the options and made a rational decision". Both have the same relation to reality—that is, very little. Interestingly, this insight from recent work in neuroscience and linguistics builds on early insight on patterns and habits in Mary Douglas's and others’ work. - Patterns arise from either personal experience or the collective narrative of the context in which the decision maker leaves. Those patterns are more informed by failure than success (avoidance of failure is a better survival strategy in a complex system. - In consequence managing decision-making is a question of managing patterns through the management of attractors and boundaries (see my earlier post). - So, communication must either resonate with existing patterns or disrupt those patterns. We are doing interesting work in the latter, for example, using evolved patterns of alternative history of the War of 1812 shortly after 9/11 to get policymakers to see those events from an Islamic perspective. Mary, I hope that helps. Participant Is it worth considering that there are some basic leadership styles that have been around for millennia? Might it be that different leaders have some personal inclination toward a particular style? For example: 1. Authority - Maintaining control relies on the obedience of those being led 2. Democracy - Leading by serving the majority 3. Anarchy - Seeing beyond a need for permanence in structured leadership 4. Abdication - Leadership in the highest integrity that stands aside if found to be unpopular 5. The General - In crisis, everyone looks to the natural leader 6. Administration - The sensible delegator If there is any validity to that possibility would it be worthwhile to consider that what a leader needs to do at any point in time might depend upon what their style is? Or even to consider that perhaps the style that will best serve in any given situation depends upon the situation itself? Mary Boone Kip, I think your final statement is the hypothesis Dave and I are working on—i.e., that the style that will best serve in any given situation depends upon the situation itself. And if that is true, then leaders need to be able to adapt their styles to a given context. The question is, are leaders able to do this? Can they be taught to do it? Participant Mary Boone Mary Boone If any of you think of further comments or questions, I'd love to hear from you in an email. Participant Participant But those leaders are always self-serving, accruing more of the power and resources to themselves and the network that supports them and the rest be damned. So in the world today business leaders are "efficiently" leading toward greater wealth concentration, and political leaders are leading toward systems that are unsustainable, but pay off within the generation (or career tenure) of those who lead. -END-
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